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Exchange Rates

Let's create a grossly oversimplified situation: you'll find only 2 POE players inside the world and just 2 types of currency (chaos and alcs by way of example). Also let's assume both players experience similar numbers of content - and have the identical drop rate of currency: 1C and 4 alc's every hour.
In principal, in the event the 2 players planned to trade - a fairly fair trade may be at an 1C:4alc exchange rate - since that represents exactly the same amount of "labor" bought collecting this currency. A more realistic capitalist/free market approach is usually to Buy POE Currency understand the price will be determined through the relative abundance of resources - rather than by the number of effort purchased collecting them. In our case the 2nd approach gives us the identical result - since both players have precisely the same "earning" rate and so the abundance of currency items is usually 1:4. Or is it?
During higher character level gameplay, alcs will often be constantly used - which means they may be consumed with out longer take place in the POE economy. If, as an example, the two players adhere to a quarter with the alc's they find (and approximately none in the C), the relative abundance within this POE economy could be 1:3. Which brings us back on the real case.
The visible pricing is set by players - and almost every player chooses the purchase price mostly by conforming while using average market prices (like we discussed before - when I'm choosing my fx rates I'm only thinking about what other players will provide - not looking to calculate relative abundance etc.). But, within the long run, prices seem to become closely correlated for the availability of each single resource on this market - just while they do in the real world free markets (basically, in case a resource is rare then a number of people prepared to sell it cheaply quickly finishes). For any 2 currencies this translates approximately to:
(Price of A) /   ~   (Drop rate A - Consumption rate A) /
(Price of B)            (Drop rate B - Consumption rate B)
What would be the "true" drop rates from Path of Exile Currency monsters? That's not something GGG discuss publicly... But the trading prices are a great place to start.
This simple calculation also can tell us certain things concerning the changes in player tendencies. For example, when the price of your certain currency suddenly raises substantially (assuming no major changes were made towards the drop rates), that means these are being consumed more often. What could possibly be the reason? Perhaps a portion with the players determined a use for it within a certain situation that has been not known before?
On the other hand, should the price seems to get surprisingly low - what about a portion from the players worked out a method to farm that currency more proficiently than before?

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